STRUCTURAL EMPLOYMENT SHIFTS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR UNDER THE GREEN VEHICLE TRANSITION

Abstract

The article explores the impact of the development of green transportation on the employment structure in the transport sector in the context of environmental and technological changes. Particular attention is paid to quantitative and qualitative shifts in the occupational structure of labor. The purpose of the article is to identify the relationship between the spread of electric transport and the transformation of the professional structure of employment in the sector. A generalized framework is developed to illustrate the influence of ecological transport on the labor market, covering both quantitative and qualitative aspects of change. It is substantiated that the growth of electromobility and charging infrastructure contributes to the creation of new jobs, particularly in battery production, maintenance of charging stations, electric fleet management, and logistics. The study identifies key drivers of employment restructuring, including automation, shifts in production technologies, digitalization, and the strengthening of national climate policies. Forecast dynamics of green job creation through 2030 are evaluated, along with corresponding trends in traditional sectors (oil extraction, internal combustion engine manufacturing). The economic efficiency of electric versus internal combustion vehicles is compared, with particular focus on fuel costs, maintenance needs, and labor demand. The article analyzes the impact of investments in green transport on employment in EU countries, assessing the effectiveness of subsidy programs and ecological transition strategies. A correlation analysis reveals a statistically significant positive relationship between the level of electromobility development and job growth in the automotive sector, especially in countries with lower levels of automation. It is shown that industrial regions investing in infrastructure and workforce retraining have a higher potential for maintaining employment amid the green transition.

An analytical model is proposed for forecasting employment structure under growing electric vehicle market shares, enabling the evaluation of impacts on specific occupational groups. The demand for specialists in electrical engineering, software, battery technologies, and infrastructure solutions is expected to rise, while employment in traditional combustion-engine-related professions will decline. The need for employment policy adaptation in response to structural transformations in the transport sector is substantiated. A mix of quantitative and qualitative analytical methods was employed. These include correlation analysis to identify statistical relationships between electromobility and employment indicators; scenario forecasting to estimate labor market transformations by 2030; content analysis of EU policy documents and initiatives (e.g., the European Green Deal); and comparative analysis of the economic efficiency of electric and internal combustion vehicles in terms of fuel, main tenance, and labor. Elements of extrapolative modeling were also used to construct forecast scenarios of employment dynamics in sectors affected by the ecological transition.

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