Demography and social economy, 2020, 4(42):25-40
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2020.04.025
УДК 331.556.4
JEL СLASSIFICATION: J61

Е. M. Libanova,
Academician of NAS of Ukraine, Dr. Sc. (Economics), Prof.,
Director Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine
01032, Ukraine, Kyiv, Blvd Taras Shevchenko, 60
E-mail: libanova@ukr.net
ORCID 0000-0001-7170-7159
Scopus ID: 36091519900
Researcher ID: AAZ-5395-2020

O. V. Pozniak,
PhD (Economics), Head of Sector Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine
01032, Ukraine, Kyiv, Blvd Taras Shevchenko, 60
E-mail: olex_poznyak@ukr.net
ORCID 0000-0002-1323-3896


EXTERNAL LABOR MIGRATION FROM UKRAINE: THE IMPACT OF COVID-19
Section: DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES
Language: Ukrainian
Abstract: The article is devoted to the assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on the tendencies of external labor migration from Ukraine. The relevance of the work is due to the limited analytical research on population migration during the pandemic. Until the beginning of 2020, changes in the formation of external labor migration flows occurred mainly under the infl uence of the internal situation in the country and the transformation of Ukraine’s political relations with certain foreign countries, but under COVID-19, the trends of external labor migration from Ukraine have changed radically for reasons independent of the socio-economic situation in Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to assess the changes in the scale of labor migration due to COVID-19 and to determine the prospects for external labor migration of Ukrainians. Relevant analytical developments became the basis for the formation of recommendations for adjusting the migration policy of Ukraine in the pandemic and post-pandemic periods. The novelty of the study is to determine the impact of COVID-19 on the parameters of external labor migration from Ukraine and to assess probable perspective future transformations of migration trends. Abstract-logical and systema tic approaches, the method of expert assessments are used in the study. The analysis of the migration situation in Ukraine in recent years is carried out, the latest changes in the directions and scales of external labor migration are identifi ed. The tendencies of international population movement aft er the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic are analyzed. Prospects for external migration of the population of Ukraine are determined. The future of this process will depend on the pace of economic recovery in Europe and the world at large and the local demand for labor from other countries. It is probable that the employment structure of Ukrainian labor migrants will change by type of activity: migrants who were not employed in agriculture before the pandemic will not resume work so soon, and those who remained in the recipient countries will try to fi nd employment in agriculture and related activities. The geography of working trips will also change, and a new reorientation of some migrants is probable — from Eastern Europe to Western Europe, especially Germany and the United Kingdom, which are far ahead of traditional Ukrainian employment countries (Poland, the Czech Republic and even Italy) in terms of wages. A key element of the policy of keeping some migrants in Ukraine is a radical non-declarative change in the state’s attitude to small and medium-sized businesses. It is necessary to involve representatives of small and medium business to public policy, including policy of withdrawal from quarantine, business support. Eff ective business support programs should also be implemented, in particular following the example of EU countries. For those migrants who, even under the best conditions, are not interested in starting a business in Ukraine, a strategy is needed to ensure that, on the one hand, these people are not lost to Ukraine, and on the other hand, to get the most out of working with the diaspora. This will help both to improve the situation in the economy and to improve the image and strengthen Ukraine’s infl uence in the world.
Key words: external labor migration, COVID-19 pandemic, impact assessment, forecasting, migration policy.
References:
1. Ukrainske suspilstvo: mihratsiinyi vymir : nats. dopovid [Ukrainian society: the migration dimension. National report] (2018). Institute of Demography and Social Studies of NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
2. External labor migration of the population (according to the results of the modular choice of the survey). Statistical bulletin. (2017). State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
3. Minich, R., & Kravchuk, P. (2020). The Impact of COVID-19 on Ukrainian Labour Migrants in Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Italy. Policy Brief. Retrieved from https://www. pragueprocess.eu/documents/repo/212/Policy_Brief_Minich_Kravchuk_EN.pdf
4. Rik bezvizu: korotki pidsumky dlia Ukrainy [The Year of visa-free regime: Short Summaries for Ukraine] (2018). zik.ua Retrieved from https://zik.ua/news/2018/06/11/rik_bezvizu_ korotki_pidsumky_dlya_ukrainy_1343305 [in Ukrainian].
5. Tret ukrainskih zarobitchan v Polshe poteryali ili ogranichili rabotu [A third of Ukrainian workers in Poland lost or limited their work] (2020). ubr.ua Retrieved from https:// ubr.ua/labor-market/work-in-fi gures/tret-ukrainskikh-zarobitchan-v-polshe-poterjaliili-ohranichili-rabotu-3891760 [in Russian].
6. Independent. Coronavirus: Th ousands of foreign NHS workers to have UK visas extended for one year (2020). www.independent.co.uk Retrieved from https://www.independent. co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-nhs-visa-doctor-nurse-paramedics-homeoffi ce-migrants-a9438211.html
7. “Duzhe vazhko vyzhyty”. chomu ukraintsi masovo rvutsia na robotu za kordon [“It’s very diffi cult to survive.” Why Ukrainians are rushing to work abroad en masse] (2020). ampua.org Retrieved from https://ampua.org/novyny/duzhe-vazhko-vizhiti-chomuukrainci-maso/ [in Ukrainian].
8. Reitynh. Biznes v ofi tsiinykh tsyfrakh [Rating. Business in offi cial fi gures] (n.d.). q.rating.zone Retrieved from https://q.rating.zone/ [in Ukrainian].
9. Na 15 tysiach ukrainskykh sezonnykh pratsivnykiv rozrakhovuiut fi nski fermery tsoho roku, — Vadym Prystaiko [Government portal. Finnish farmers are counting on 15,000 Ukrainian seasonal workers this year, - Vadym Prystaiko] (2020). kmu.gov.ua Retrieved from https://www.kmu.gov.ua/news/vadim-pristajko-razom-z-fi nskimi-kolegamiuryad- ukrayini-dopomozhe-ukrayinskim-pracivnikam-organizovano-distatisya-na-sezonniroboti [in Ukrainian].
10. Stalo vidomo, v yaki krainy zbyraiutsia ukraintsi na robotu [It became known in which countries Ukrainians are going to work] (2020). day.kyiv.ua Retrieved from http://day. kyiv.ua/uk/news/010520-stalo-vidomo-v-yaki-krayiny-zbyrayutsya-ukrayinci-na-robotu [in Ukrainian].
11. Italiia oholosyla masovu lehalizatsiiu trudovykh mihrantiv [Italy has announced the mass legalization of migrant workers] (2020). eurointegration.com.ua Retrieved from https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2020/05/14/7109905/ [in Ukrainian].
12. Yevrosoiuz vvodyt novi pravyla vizdu cherez koronavirus: shcho zminytsia [The European Union is introducing new rules for entry through the coronavirus: what will change] (2020). prm.ua Retrieved from https://prm.ua/yevrosoyuz-vvodit-novi-pravilav-yizdu-cherez-koronavirus-shho-zminitsya/ [in Ukrainian].
13. International Organization for Migration. (IOM). (2019). Survey on migration and human traffi cking in Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and Georgia, 2019. iom.org.ua Retrieved from http://iom.org.ua/sites/default/fi les/iom_regional_ct_survey_2019_eng_print.pdf
14. Kazhdyj lej, vydelennyj programmoj PARE 1+1, privlek 2,7 leya v ekonomiku [Each lei allocated by PARE 1+1 program attracted 2.7 lei to the economy] (2016). point. md Retrieved from https://point.md/ru/novosti/ekonomika/kazhdij-lej-videlennijprogrammoj-pare-11-privlek-27-leya-v-ekonomiku [in Russian].
15 Offi cial site of International Ukrainian School. (IUS). (n.d.). uis.org.ua Retrieved from https://uis.org.ua/

» pdf