ua ru en

№2 (40) 2020

Demography and social economy, 2020, 2(40):21-34
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2020.02.021
УДК 314.728 (477)

O.V. Pozniak, PhD (Economics),
Head of sector
Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National
Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
01032, Kyiv, Blvd Taras Shevchenko, 60
E-mail: olex_poznyak@ukr.net
ORCID 0000-0002-1323-3896

Language: Ukrainian
Abstract: The article is devoted to the formation of scientifically grounded estimation of the actual population of Kyiv, based on the results of similar assessments made in 2009-2011, and taking into account the transformations of socio-economic development of Ukraine, which took place during the last decade, as well as the development of the migration forecast of the population in city by 2040. The relevance of the study is due to the presence of large contingents of unregistered population in the capital, accordingly, official data on the population of Kiev are understated. The novelty of the study is a refined methodology for estimating the actual population of Kyiv, as well as identifying promising trends in population migration in the capital of Ukraine. The analysis of the migration situation in the city is carried out, special attention is paid to the new type of migration of the population — the movement of internally displaced persons. Based on the methodological approaches developed during the study, the number of the actual population of Kyiv was estimated. Four methods of determining the actual population of the city were developed, based on the results of which a generalized assessment was made. The actual population of Kyiv as of the beginning of 2018 is estimated at 3361.6 thousand people, that is, the number of unregistered population exceeds 468.4 thousand or nearly 14 % of the actual population. On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of migration processes, a prospective assessment of the future migration situation in the city has been made. The demographic forecast of Kyiv and, in particular, the forecast of migration of the population of the city, was developed in two variants. The realistic variant of the forecast describes the most likely scenario of development, based on the peculiarities of the dynamics of individual components of natural and mechanical mo vement of the population and the corresponding achieved level of indicators. The optimistic variant is likely in the context of rapid renewal of favorable trends in socio-economic development and successful implementation of national demographic policies. Hypotheses of the forecast of migration of the population till 2040 are developed, the results of the calculation of the forecast of the number and sex-age structure of the population at the beginning of 2041 and the forecast estimate for the period till the beginning of 2061 are presented.
Key words: migration, actual population, unregistered population, migration forecasting
1. Ukrainian society: the migration dimension. National report (2018). Institute of Demography and Social Studies of NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian]
2. The World Migration Report 2015: Migrants and Cities, New Partnerships for Manage Mobility (2015). IOM. Geneva. Retrieved from https://www.iom.int/world-migrationreport-2015
3. World Migration Report 2018 (2018). IOM. Geneva. Retrieved from https://www.iom. int/sites/default/files/country/docs/china/r5_world_migration_report_2018_en.pdf
4. Pozniak, O. (2009). Estimation of the actual population of Kyiv. Socio-economic and demo graphic problems of preserving and developing the labor potential of the regions. Ternopil [in Ukrainian].
5. Ahas, R., Armoogum, J., Esko, S., Ilves, M., Karus, E., Madre, J-L., & Nurmi, O. (2014). Mobile Positioning Data for Tourism Statistics. Consolidated Report. Eurostat. Contract No. 30501.2012.001-2012. 452. 30 June 2014.
6. Chudinovskih, O.S. (2018). Big data and migration statistics. Questions of statistics, 25, 48-56. Retrieved from https://istina.msu.ru/download/106684550/1fICOP:n_b2GlsCo1Gj_ Pk4WIseug7N_SI/ [in Russian].
7. Veremchuk, A. & Razbitsky, M. (2019). Assessing the Big Data Potential for Labor Migration Research. Demography and the Social Economy, 1 (35), 196-208. https://doi. org/10.15407/dse2019.01.196 [in Ukrainian]. https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2019.01.196
8. Estimation of the population of Ukraine as of December 1, 2019 (2019). State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/Noviny/new2020/zmist/ novini/OnU_01_12_2019.pdf [in Ukrainian].
9. Official site of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www. ukrstat.gov.ua/
10. Pozniak, O. (Ed.). (2007). Migration Processes in Ukraine: Current Status and Prospects. Uman. [in Ukrainian].
11. Residence registration system in Ukraine: its impact on the realization of human rights and vital interests. Results of sociological research (2018). CEDOS Think Tank. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
12. Official Site of the State Voters Register (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.drv.gov.ua/ ords/portal/!cm_core.cm_index?option=ext_num_voters&pdt=6&pdy=706&pmn_ id=127
13. The most popular subjects for independent external evaluation-2019 are named (n.d.). Retrieved from https://lenta.ua/ua/nazvani-naypopulyarnishi-predmeti-na-zno-2019- 11332/ [in Ukrainian].

» pdf