Demography and social economy, 2019, 3(37):30-46
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2019.03.030
UDC 314.7(477)
JEL CLASSIFICATION: J61, O15, R23

N.V. Tylikina
PhD (Economics), deputy director of scientific work
State Institution «State Institute of Family and Youth Policy»
01001, Ukraine, Kyiv, Esplanadna str., 17
E-mail: tilikina_natalia@ukr.net
ORCID 0000-0002-5755-5301

FORECAST OF THE TERRITORIAL MOBILITY OF YOUTH IN UKRAINE
Section: MIGRATION PROCESSES AND TRENDS
Language: Ukrainian
Abstract: The article is dedicated to predicting the internal and external territorial mobility of youth, in particular, for the next five years, and identifying factors that stimulate or restrain the youth migration, both for recipient countries or regions and for donor countries or regions. The principle of integrated use of forecasting methods is applied, which involves a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods of information collection and analysis, namely: the secondary analysis of data from various sociological studies; the analysis of the results of nationwide youth survey, where the author directly participated in the development of tools and analysis of data; the analysis of the results of the expert survey conducted by the author. Such approach enhances the reliability of the conclusions and the projected results and enables us to find out the effective ways of solving the problem of external migration of youth in the current socio-economic context. A comprehensive analysis of secondary and primary empirical data has revealed that both external and internal migration of youth will increase in future. It is revealed that in addition to an educational migration, the labor migration of youth will increase, especially for highly qualified specialists in technical specialties. The European trend, which has continued to dominate in recent years, will expand to such countries as Germany, France and the United Kingdom. An internal migration of youth will remain a trend of young people moving for studying and employment from rural and small towns to large cities and regional centers. The tendency of youth to move to more economically developed regions of the country is projected to continue, and in case of worsening of the economic situation it will lead to the growth of remote employment, especially among IT-specialists. The decentralization of power that has taken place in recent years in Ukraine will facilitate the relocation of youth to the centers of the united territorial communities, where their infrastructure and most of the industrial complex are concentrated. The factors that can stimulate or restrain youth migration in the next five years are justified. It is determined that the main factors of territorial mobility of youth are economic, social, informational and communicational, and infrastructural factors, as well as subjective factors – the possibility of self-development and personal development and the desire to give a better future to their children.
Key words: territorial mobility of youth, migration, labour migration, educational migration, migration policy, youth policy.
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