Demography and social economy, 2019, 2(36):65-80
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2019.02.065
UDC 316.42:330.46(477)
JEL CLASSIFICATION: С87, E26

O.A. Grishnova
Dr. Sc. (Economics), Prof.
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
03022, Ukraine, Kyiv, Vasylkivska Str., 90 A
E-mail: grishnova@ukr.net
ORCID 0000-0002-4178-1662

Y.M. Kharazishvili
Dr. Sc. (Economics), SRF, Senior Research Associate
Institute of Industrial Economics
of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
03057, Ukraine, Kyiv, Marii Kapnist Str., 2
E-mail: yuri_mh@ukr.net
ORCID 0000-0002-3787-1323

DEMOGRAPHIC SECURITY OF UKRAINE: INDICATORS, LEVEL, THREATS
Section: DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES
Language: Ukrainian
Abstract: The article aims to identify the level of demographic security in Ukraine according to modern methodology, by comparing it with the integral thresholds and identifying the most influential threats in this area from the standpoint of social security.The authors defined a working list of demographic safety indicators, which may vary depending on the depth and objectives of the study. The paper identified the boundaries for safe demographic development, taking into account the experience of economically developed EU member states, which makes it possible to protect the vital interests of the security object. Thus, for each indicator, the scholars defined a vector of threshold values, particularly: upper and lower optimal value, upper and lower threshold value, as well as upper and lower critical value (for more in-depth studies) by using the t-test through shaping the probability density functions, computing the statistical characteristics (mathematical expectation, mean squared error and the coefficient of skewness) while using Student tables and a formalised description of the threshold values’ vector for the characteristic distribution types (normal, log-normal, exponential one).The research identified the changes in the demographic security level by means of integral estimation with the use of the modern methodology, which involves the use of the multiplicative form of the integral index, combined valuation method and dynamic weight coefficients determined using the ‘main components’ and the ‘slip matrix’ methods. The authors carried out the integral convolution both for indicators and for threshold values, which allows comparing them in one scale to identify threats. The results of identifying the current state of demographic security in Ukraine and defining the changes in the integral index confirm its critical level throughout all years of independent Ukraine, which poses a significant threat to national security. Therefore, the article outlined the most important threats and ranked them according to the weight of influence. According to the detachment from the sustainable development level the most significant threats to demographic security of Ukraine are the ultra low net reproduction rate of population on 1 stalk, the high mortality rate of the population in general and the mortality of infants in particular. It was also established that the most influential regulatory factors on the level of demographic security are: the coefficient of depopulation and the total mortality rate of the population.
Key words: demographic security, indicators, threshold values, integral index, threats
References:
1. Zakon Ukrayiny «Pro demografichnu bezpeku Ukrayiny» (proekt vid 15.10.2003 № 4269) [The Law of Ukraine «On Demographic Security of Ukraine» (project No. 4269 of 15.10.2003)]. rada.gov.ua. Retrieved from http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc4_2?id=&pf3516=4269&skl=5 [in Ukraine].
2. Hladun, O.M. (2013). Otsinka hipotetychnykh vtrat naselennya Ukrayiny za period 1897-2012 rr. [Estimation of hypothetical losses of the population of Ukraine for the period of 1897-2012]. Demohrafiya ta sotsial’na ekonomika - Demography and Social Economy, 2(20), 147-155 - https://doi.org/10/15407/ dse2013.02.147 [in Ukrainian].
3. Levchuk, N.M. (2016). Kalendarna y kohortna tryvalist’ zhyttya v Ukrayini: osoblyvosti dynamiky u dovhotryvaliy retrospektyvi [Calendar and cohort life expectancy in Ukraine: peculiarities of dynamics in the long-term retrospective]. Demohrafiya ta sotsial’na ekonomika - Demography and Social Economy, 1(26), 80-92 - https://doi.org/10/15407/dse2016.01.080 [in Ukrainian].
4. Libanova, E.M. (2014). Demograficheskie sdvigi v kontekste sotsialnogo razvitiya [Demographic shifts in the context of social development]. Demografiya ta sotsIalna ekonomika - Demography and Social Economy, 1(21), 9-23 - https://doi.org/10/15407/dse2014.01.009 [in Russian].
5. Rynhach, N. (2008). Minimizatsiya demohrafichnykh zahroz yak neobkhidnyy komponent polityky zabezpechennya natsional’noyi bezpeky Ukrayiny [Minimizing demographic threats as a necessary component of Ukraine’s national security policy]. Efektyvnist’ derzhavnoho upravlinnya - Effectiveness of public administration, 14/15, 140-145 [in Ukrainian].
6. Steshenko, V.S. (2013). Zmist ponyat’ «demohrafichnyy rozvytok» i «lyuds’kyy rozvytok»: totozhnosti ta vidminnosti [Contents of the concepts of «demographic development» and «human development»: identities and differences]. Demohrafiya ta sotsial’na ekonomika. - Demography and Social Economy, 1(19), 5-16 - https://doi.org/10/15407/dse2013.01.005 [in Ukrainian].
7. Hnybidenko, I. (2007). Demohrafichni aspekty natsional’noyi bezpeky derzhavy [Demographic Aspects of National Security of the State]. Ukrayina: aspekty pratsi - Ukraine: aspects of labor, 5, 11-18 [in Ukrainian].
8. Dnistryans’kyy, M. (2017). Demohrafichna kryza v Ukrayini yak problema natsional’noyi bezpeky. Retrieved from http://bintel.com.ua/uk/article/09-22-demograph/ [in Ukrainian].
9. Tsvihun, I.A. (2013). Demohrafichna bezpeka Ukrayiny ta napryamy yiyi rehulyuvannya [Demographic security of Ukraine and directions of its regulation]. Kam’yanets’-Podil’s’kyy: Vydavets’ PP Zvoleyko D.H. [in Ukrainian].
10. Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (2016) Data Resources. Retrieved from http://ghdx.healthdata. org/gbd-2016
11. The World Factbook (2017). Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/LIBRARY/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2066rank.html
12. The Official Site of Eurostat (2017). «Demography and Migration». Retrieved from http://ec.europa. eu/eurostat/data/database
13. Kharazishvili, Yu.M. (2019). Systemna bezpeka staloho rozvytku: instrumentariy otsinky, rezervy ta stratehichni stsenariyi realizatsiyi [Systemic Safety of Sustainable Development: Assessment Tool, Reserves and Strategic Implementation Scenarios]. Kyiv, NAN Ukrayiny, In-t ekonomiky prom-sti [in Ukrainian].
14. Kharazishvili, Yu.M., & Hrishnova, O.A. (2018). Yakist’ zhyttya v systemi sotsial’noyi bezpeky Ukrayiny: indykatory, riven’, zahrozy [Quality of life in the system of social security in Ukraine: Indicators, level, threats]. Ekonomika Ukrayiny - Economy of Ukraine, 11-12, 157-171 [in Ukrainian].
15. Werner, I.E. (Ed.). (2018). Statystychnyy shchorichnyk Ukrayiny za 2017 [Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine for 2017]. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. [in Ukrainian].
16. Unated nations data retrieval system. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=PopDiv- &f=variableID%3A48
17. Kharazishvili, Yu.M., & Dron, Ye.V. (2015). Problemy intehral’noho otsinyuvannya rivnya ekonomichnoyi bezpeky derzhavy [Problems of the integrated assessment of the level of economic security of the state]. Bankivs’ka sprava - Banking, 1 (133), 3-21 [in Ukrainian].
18. Metodyka rozrakhunku rivnya ekonomichnoyi bezpeky Ukrayiny, zatverdzhena nakazom Minekonomiky Ukrayiny vid 02.03.2007 r. № 60 [Methodology for calculating the level of economic security of Ukraine, approved by the order of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine dated March 02, 2007 No. 60]. (2007). Retrieved from: http://me.kmu.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/ article? art_id [in Ukrainian].
19. Paniotto, V.I., Maksymenko, V.S., & Marchenko, N.M. (2004). Statystychnyy analiz sotsiolohichnykh danykh [Statistical analysis of sociological data]. Kyiv: Vyd. dim KM Akademiya [in Ukrainian].

» pdf