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№1 (35) 2019

Demography and social economy, 2019, 1(35):53-68
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2019.01.053
UDC 330.59(478)

scientific researcher, PhD student
Centre for Demographic Researches
National Institute for Economic Research Republic of Moldova
MD-2064, Republic of Moldova, Chisinau, Ion Creanga, 45
E-mail: egrigoras88@gmail.com

Language: English
Abstract: The article provides the particularities of fertility transition in the Republic of Moldova and former Soviet Republics from European region (Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic countries). The postponing fertility of younger women and the tendencies of recuperation of postponed fertility in the older group of women and the change in complete cohort fertility are examined. The aim of the research is to distinguish the main particularities of fertility transition in the Republic of Moldova and selected former Soviet countries during the period 1971–2014. The main objectives are the delimitation of divergences and convergences among them, the determination of fertility transition stages, the assessment of births postponement level, and the quantification of fertility recuperation level in cohorts that have completed their reproductive period. A postponement and recuperation model proposed by T. Frejka was used as the main method of analysis. The study is based on the Human Fertility Database (HFD) and the vital statistics for the Republic of Moldova. The period analysed is 1971–2014. The quantification of fertility postponement and recuperation was realised through the comparative analysis of the cumulated age-specific fertility of the 1960 cohort (the reference cohort) and the cumulated age-specific fertility of the 1975 and 1980 cohorts. The results show that after 1990, the postponement index is in continuing increase in all countries. The Baltic countries have the highest index of postponement while the Republic of Moldova the lowest. Russia, Belarus and Ukraine register the medium level of postponement index. A slower pace than in other countries characterizes the fertility transition in the Republic of Moldova. The fertility profile has an intermediate character, which moves from the early to the late model, recording the first and second phase The Baltic countries are characterized by a faster fertility transition and have been closer to the West European fertility model, especially Estonia, which reached the end of the fertility transition. The fertility transition in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine has been largely influenced by financial incentives for fertility, which are reflected in the pattern of the fertility transition and the shift through different phases.
Key words: fertility postponement, fertility recuperation, particularities of fertility transition, cumulative fertility rate, total fertility rate, cohort fertility rate.
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