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№2 (33) 2018

Demography and social economy, 2018, 2(33):38-52
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2018.02.038
UDC 314.12 (477)

I.O. Kurylo
Dr. Sc. (Economics), Prof.
Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies
of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
01032, Ukraine, Kyiv, blvd Taras Shevchenko, 60
E-mail: iryna.kurilo2017@gmail.com

Language: Ukrainian
Abstract: The paper aims to identify fertility patterns by the second and third birth orders in Ukraine, detecting its retrospective and current trends based on the analysis of cohort and calendar fertility in comparison with developed European countries. The study of the parity progression ratios, birth intervals, cumulative cohort fertility rates by the second and third birth orders is based on fertility cohort tables by birth orders (for female cohorts born from mid to last quarters of the 20th century). The analysis results permitted to develop the chronological framework of the fertility-pattern by birth orders in Ukraine and to determine the peculiarities of the cohort fertility by the second and third birth orders and its differences with European countries. The study establishes that the share of women with two children in Ukraine has been decreasing starting with the 1960s cohorts, and for those with three children has been drastically declining starting with the 1950s cohorts. The cohorts of Ukrainian women are characterized by a high probability of the first birth and a brusque decrease in the likelihood of family growth associated with the next (second, third) births. Completed cohort fertility by the second birth order among the cohorts born between 1955 and 1973 has fallen in Ukraine while in observed European countries this indicator remains stable with a shift of the part of second births to the age group over 35. Completed fertility of the third order in the cohort of European women has declined, but it remains significantly higher than in Ukraine. This difference is due to late third births in European countries. The analysis of the dynamics of cohort fertility by the second and third birth orders in combination with period indicators for the period starting with 1970s to the beginning of the 2000s allowed to demonstrate the peculiarities of the period birth rates fluctuations and determine their differences from cohort rates influenced by the family policy and pronatalist measures of 1980s and by crisis phenomena of 1990s. The changes in the period fertility by second and third birth orders during the last decade are described and current priorities of the Ukrainian family policy are outlined.
Key words: fertility, birth order, period and cohort fertility by second and third birth orders, parity progression ratio, birth interval, cumulative cohort fertility rates by second and third birth orders, mean age at second birth, mean age at third birth.

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