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3 (31) 2017

Demography and social economy, 2017, 3(31):61-75
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2017.03.061
UDC 005.95/.96, 519.2

PhD (Economics), Senior Researcher
Institute for Economic and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
26, Panasa Myrnoho, Kyiv, 01011, Ukraine
-mail: yarina79@ukr.net

PhD (Economics), Expert of Retail Risk Modelling Alior Bank S.A.
38 D, Lopushanska, Warzsawa, 02-232, Poland
-mail: agkuzmenko@ukr.net

Language: English
Abstract: The approach to solution of predicting, classification and risk events diagnosis problems on the labour market during strategic management of human resources are proposed, which has been tested on assessing the risk of unemployment among working population of Ukraine. Specifically, the authors has built a scoring model, which takes into account the joint influence of socio-demographic and professional-and-qualification characteristics of employees, and calculates points based on which it ranks the employees by the risk of the loss of work. It has been discovered that a portrait of employee with the highest probability of bad events is the following: single male, aged 1522, living in rural areas, with profession according to diploma (certificate) qualified agriculture and forestry employee, skilled tool worker, person working in maintenance, exploitation and monitoring of technological equipment, while being employed in another job, mainly performing the simplest tasks in such economic areas as agriculture and construction.
The scoring model was built using the method of binary logistic regression and the R, SPSS and MS Excel software.
On the basis of the model, one can not only structure the process of preparing possible solutions for risk management, but also carry out a preliminary assessment of the significance of the employees processed characteristics associated with the likelihood of risk events.
A monitoring of the built scoring model is carried out in order to assess the risk of unemployment among working population of Ukraine. Based on the testing using such parameters as stability, discriminatory power (ranking efficiency) and calibration quality, the author confirmed the models good predictive ability and adequate functioning.
The model for estimation of probability of unemployment among the employed population of Ukraine is presented primarily as an example of scoring application in HR field. The future prospects of creating such probabilistic models, such tool can be relevant for state institutions, for example employment bureau, as well as employers, i.e. all parties involved in creation and implementation of HR management strategies. From large amount of data they accumulate on a daily basis the knowledge base for making conscious, not intuitive, strategic decisions and tactical steps can be obtained.
Key words: strategic management, human resources, risk, scoring model, unemployment.
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