3 (28) 2016

Demography and social economy, 2016, 3(28):47-57
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2016.03.047

P.E. Shevchuk
PhD (Economics), Leading Scientific Worker
Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
01032, Ukraine, Kyiv, blvd. Taras Shevchenko, 60
E-mail: pavlo-shevchuk@ukr.net

Language: Ukrainian
Abstract: Population is not the determining force of development for modern society. But population shrinking means losses of the future development conditions and human capital. On the other hand, the steady increase in population also includes certain threats. As a rule, a population continues to grow (or decline) when the instant bare replacement level reached. In a closed population, growth or decline gradually slows until a stationary population is attained. This effect is called population momentum or growth potential. Over the last 150 years the population of Ukraine passed a difficult way of development, which affected demographic crises of various kinds. Just the age structure retains the population momentum during the sharp deteriorations of the population reproduction and is a self-important factor in population dynamics. The results of calculation of the population momentum of Ukraine for century and a half show that it varied from 0.9 in the second half of the nineteenth century to about 2.0 at the turn of the XXI century. In times of major demographic crisis, this figure reached the largest values in periods without shocks it tended to one. The main reason for the change of population momentum is a sudden short-term or slow unidirectional long-term change in population reproduction, resulting in the stable equivalent substantially deviating from the actual age structure.
Key words: population momentum, stable population, stationary population.
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