Demography and social economy, 2015, 1(23):126-136
https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2015.01.126

B. Krimer
senior research officer Ptоukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Ukraine

Effect of recent decades wars on fertility in Europe
Section: DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS
Language: Ukrainian
Abstract: The impact of wars on fertility in modern conditions is analyzed in this paper. The consequences of the conflicts of the last decades in developed countries are considered. Changes in the dynamics and structure of fertility under the influence of wars are characterized. Ways to minimize the negative consequences of the conflict are formulated.
Post-war compensation growth of fertility in modern industrialized countries combines with postponement of childbirth under the influence of values transformation. Thus, in contrast to the previous post-war periods, fertility increases mainly in older age cohorts of childbearing age, stretches over time after the war and is not a clearly marked «surge».
War in modern conditions accelerates the processes of fertility postponement. War conflicts do not affect fertility significantly the older age groups of women of childbearing age (40–44) and have very little effect on fertility of women aged 35–49 years, but the negative effect on fertility of younger women is very noticeable, similar to the effect of economic crisis. Births out of wedlock also slightly increase. Ultimately, the impact of wars on the final generation fertility is not essential.
In the short term, the post-war Ukraine would expect a decrease of childbirth in younger age groups of childbearing age that will define total fertility. We can assume that compensatory rise in fertility will not be momentary – it will be slow over the next decade and will be accompanied by a noticeable transformation in age-patterns of fertility. The negative impact of war and forced migration on marriage, the family situation and dynamics of fertility, for further favorable course of events may well be very short-lived.
Key words: fertility, war, fertility trends, fertility changes, postponement of childbirths, non-marital fertility, recession.
References:
1. Libanova, L.M., Aksionova, S. Yu., Bialkovska, V.G. (2008). Naselennia Ukrainy. Narodzhuvanist v Ukraini u konteksti suspilno-transformatsiinykh protsesiv. [Population of Ukraine: Fertility in Ukraine]. Kyiv: ADEF-Ukraina [in Ukrainian].
2. Vishnevskii, A.G. (Eds.) (2006). Demograficheskaya modernizatsiya Rossii: 1900-2000 [Demograpy modernization of Russia: 1900-2000]. Moscou: Novoe izdatelstvo [in Russian].
3. Debarati, Guha-Sapir, D’Aoust, Olivia (2011). Demographic and health consequences of civil conflict. World Development Report background papers. Washington, DC: World Bank. Retrieved from: http://documents.worldbank.org/ curated/en/2010/10/14266127/demographic-health-consequences-civil-conflict [in English].
4. Staveteig, Sarah Elizabeth (2011) Genocide, Nuptiality, and Fertility in Rwanda and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Dissertation. University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved from: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0t-58z112 [in English].
5. Hashem Nimeh Fayyad (2012) Fertility in Iraq: Trends, Evolution and Influential Factorsyad. Ret- rieved from: http://english.dohainstitute.org/release/ d7605c83-6ef8-48f8-8e5d-bc5e60bb5d17 [in English].
6. Islamov, F.S. (2006). Rozhdaemost v Tadshykistane [Fertility in Tagikistan]. Demoscop Weekly, Vol. 267-268. Retrieved from: http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2006/0267/analit08.php [in Russian].
7. Heidelberg Institute for International Confict Research. (2013). Conflict Barometr 2013. Retrieved from http://hiik.de/de/downloads/data/downloads_2013/ConflictBarometer2013.pdf [in English]. 8. Zaharov, S.V. (2012) Vtoroi demograficheskii perekhod i izmenenie vozrastnoi modeli rozhdaemosti [Second demography transition and age-fertility changes] Demoscop Weekly, Vol. 495-496. Retrieved from: http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2012/0495/tema05.php [in English].
9. Thevenon, Olivier (2010) Fertility in OECD countries: An assessment of macro-level trends and policy responses. Retrieved from: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/repro/assets/docs/Macro-trends.pdf [in English].