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1 (21) 2014

Demography and social economy, 2014, 1(21):108-120
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2014.01.108

V.N. Arkhangelskyi
PhD in economics, head of sector, M. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Economics faculty. Center for population studies

Section: Socio-demographic changes in Ukraine: factors and prospects.
Language: Russian
Abstract: Since the beginning of the 2000th years in Russia birth rate increases. Especially its essential gain occurs since 2007. The total fertility rate increased with 1,305 in 2006 to 1,691 in 2012. First of all, this increase occurs on the second and subsequent births. In many respects it is caused by the realization beginning in 2007 of additional measures of the help to families with children. When comparing a gain of total coefficient of birth rate on the second and subsequent births for 20072012 with what it could be at preservation of dynamics of 20002006, the difference in 44,1% turns out. It is represented that it is possible to charge to result of realization of measures of the state help to families with children.
Results of the sociological surveys conducted in 2012 and 2013, showed significantly a big share of rebirths with an interval of 10 years and more after the birth of the first-born during the period after 2007 in comparison with 20002006. The increase in a share of rebirths with so considerable interval after the birth of the first child can be considered, probably, as an assessment of productivity of measures of demographic policy because if the birth of these children the long time was postponed, that, the probability is great that without their realization of these births wouldnt be in general.
By results of sociological poll of 2013, 43,3% of respondents (including answered it is hard to say) dont deny the help of realized measures in adoption by them of the decision on the birth of the second or subsequent child in 20072013. This size is very close to the gain noted above (by 2012) total fertility rate on the second and subsequent births (44,1%).
The choice respondents of a measure of the help to families with the children, had the greatest impact on adoption by them of the decision on the birth of the younger child, considerably differs depending on his sequence. At whom this child the first, most often noted influence of a monthly grant (paid holiday) on care of the child till 1,5 years. Among at whom this child is the second or the subsequent, the majority noted the greatest influence of the federal maternity (family) capital. It can be considered as the main measure which has influenced increase of level of birth rate in 20072012, without belittling, however, a positive role of realization and other measures.
Key words: fertility, demographic policies, the help to families with children.
1. Sinyavskaya O.V., Golovlyanitcina E.B. Novye mery semeynoy politiki I naselenie: budet li dlitelnym povyshenie rozhdaemosti? // Roditeli I deti, muzhchiny i zhenschiny v semye i obschestve [New measures of family policy and population: whether there will be long a birth rate increase? // Parents and children, men and women in a family and society]. V.2. M.: IISP, 2009, pp. 205-246 [in Russian].
2. Arkhangelskyi V.N. Ispolzovanie statisticheskoy i sociologicheskoy informatcii pri otcenke rezultativnosti demographicheskoy politiki v otnoshenii rozhdaemosti // Innovatcionnoe razvitie economic Rossii: regionalnoe raznoobrazie [The use of statistical and sociological data for efficiency assessment of demographic policies in the field of fertility // Innovative development of economy of Russia: regional variety]. M.: RG-Press, 2013, pp. 777-785 [in Russian].

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