Demography and social economy, 2014, 1(21):9-23
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2014.01.009

Е.М. Libanova
Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Academician of NAS of Ukraine, Director Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS IN SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT
Section: Socio-demographic changes in Ukraine: factors and prospects.
Language: Russian
Abstract: The article is devoted to a search of answers to some questions related to the changes in the number and composition of the population of Ukraine, scales and causes of disparities between the national demographic trends and European ones, expectations on the future development of demographic processes and their social and economic consequences.
The dynamics of fertility and rapid population ageing respond to the trends of the overwhelming majority of European countries; however dynamics of mortality, migrations and demographic degradation of some rural area are quite contradictory.
There are no reasons to expect a notable increase in fertility in the nearest future, even given further growth of child allowances.
Ukraine’s lag behind the developed countries is estimated in 12–14 years in terms of the life expectancy at birth and in multiple exceeding in probabilities of death among males aged 20–60. The situation can be transformed only through development and dissimilation of the healthy life standards among the population of Ukraine in combination with providing of accessible high-quality medical services.Transformation of migratory processes (with consideration of labour component) will depend on a correlation between quality of life, income levels and capacity of the labour markets in Ukraine and abroad. Thus, migrations will not make an important impact on changes in the age composition of a population. An increase in the ageing, common for most countries of Euro-Atlantic civilization, will become the main result of demographic trends. The world is changing at many levels, including- family (individual), national and international ones; the areas of economy, finances, medicine, services and culture are changing as well. There is a need in maximum involvement of elder generations to economic and public life, maximum use of their accumulated social capital. The forms could be different, but it is critically important to prevent the tensions among generations.
Depopulation does not look too dangerous by itself. Due to peculiarities of efficiency of the Ukraine’s economy, even a notable decline in the total labour force suggestion at the labour market could be completely compensated with increase in the labour productivity. Obviously, it will require the adequate technological re-equipment of enterprises on the one hand, and changes in educational, occupational and qualification training of a population – on the other hand.
Key words: demographic trends, population structure, total fertility rate, life expectancy, death probability, labor migrants, ageing, social transferts.
References:
1. Doklad o chelovecheskom razvitii 2013. Vozvyshenie Juga: chelovecheskij progress v mnogoobraznom mire [Human Development Report 2013. The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World]. UNDP [in Russian].
2. Ferguson, Niall (2008). The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World. Penguin Press [in English].
3. Kotlikoff, Lorens, Berns, Skott (2005). Pensionnaja sistema pered burej [The Coming Generational Storm]. Al’pina Pablisher [in Russian].

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