Журнал "Демографія та соціальна економіка"

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№1 (19) 2013

Demography and social economy, 2013, 1(19):57-66
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2013.01.057

V.G. Sarioglo
Ph.D. in econ., Senior Researcher, Ptoukha Institute for demography and social studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Section: Efficiency of social policy.
Language: Ukrainian
Abstract: The article highlights the relevance, theoretical and practical significance of researches on evaluating the effect of social programs on the quality of life. This evaluation is an important prerequisite for the development and implementation of effective and efficient social policies in most countries. Thus the problem of creation and usage of modern tools of measuring actual and prognostic results of the program realization is relevant.
Methodological approaches to the evaluation of actual and prognostic results of the state social programs’ implementation, basic evaluation forms and conditions ensuring its adequacy have been considered. Basic forms of evaluation are: prognostic evaluation aimed at studying the specifics of the implementation of program’s future procedures, prognostication of outcomes, direct and indirect social effects, concomitant evaluation designed for analytical support of the program realization and provision of a regenerative connection with the possibility of correction of particular procedures in the course of their implementation; summarizing evaluation, the purposes of which may be monitoring the efficiency of the program and the evaluation of its effect. The main conditions for an adequate evaluation of programs in the social sphere are: maximal account of the real environment of the program implementation, determination and account of main channels affecting the achievement of program objectives, formation and use of a system of indicators for monitoring that adequately reflects all phases of the program, evaluation of direct and indirect social outcomes, evaluation of the risks of realization of possible worst-case scenarios, improvement of informa- tional and analytical support for decision making in the course of program implementation.
The characteristic of the principal methodological approaches, based on which the modern tools of program evaluation are built, have been presented. Thus, experimental, quasi-experimental, implicit methods, and methods of social analysis and modeling of populations and processes have been considered. It has been shown that the major advantages of application of the microsimulation approach in evaluating the results of program realization are: the possibility to analyze a significant number of various characteristics of the studied totality, and use a wide range of behavioral models, its aptitude for experiments on the sets of parameters that correspond to different scenarios of policy realization. The example of evaluation of the particular effects of the birth payments program, which is being implemented in Ukraine, has been provided.
Key words: social program, evaluation of programs, evaluation tools, effect evaluation, microsimulation.
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