Demography and social economy, 2016, 3(28):34-46
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2016.03.034

O.G. Rogozhin
Dr. Sc. (Еconomics), Senior Scientist Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
03186, Ukraine, Kyiv, 13 Chokolovsky blvd.
E-mail: olexarog@gmail.com

AN ESTIMATION OF POTENTIAL DEMOGRAPHIC LOSSES IN UKRAINE: THE MACROECONOMIC APPROACH
Section: DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES
Language: Ukrainian
Abstract: The macroeconomic approach is realized for the estimation of potential demographic losses of present Ukrainian population. Because the fundamental reason of social and political catastrophes connected with considerable demographic losses is a macroeconomic factor. This factor reveals itself as the national economy demographic capacity. We determined this capacity with the short term «demoeconomic niche».
The indexes with which it is possible to estimate «momental» (annual) potential of diminishing the whole and in particular rural population are substantiated. Potential demographic losses (diminishing of whole population) are represented with the ratio of per capita value of aggregate whole household resources and the official minimum subsistence level, measured in 2004 $PPP taking in account inflation (CPI) and reproduction cost coefficient. Potential demographic losses of rural population – with the ratio of per capita value of aggregate rural household resources and per capita output of agrarian sector, measured in current $PPP.
In accordance with calculations for whole population, in 1999–2008 there were quasi-cyclic fluctuations of the potential size of whole population losses measuring 5–6 million. Then formed a tendency of its gradual increase of whole population potential losses with its stabilization at the level of 14–15 millions, but in 2014 a sharp growth to over 20 million occurred. Dynamics of rural population potential losses is different. It diminished from a size of over 8 millions in 2000–2001 to less than 1 million in 2009. Then the tendency had changed. In 2014 the demoeconomic potential of Ukrainian rural population losses is estimated in approximately 5 million persons.
The estimation of macroeconomic potential of «momental» demographic losses is only a possibility of their realization. Other factors can both prevent or facilitate them.
Key words: population, consumption, income behavior, social standards, minimum subsistence level, national economy demographic capacity, reduction of demoeconomic niche, potential demographic losses.
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