Demography and social economy, 2014, 1(21):72-84
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2014.01.072

O. Poznyak
Ph. D. (Economics), Head of Migration Studies Department of M. Ptoukha IDSS of NAS of Ukraine
P. Shevchuk
Ph. D. (Economics), Research Fellow of M. Ptoukha IDSS of NAS of Ukraine

POPULATION PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE UP TO 2060
Section: Socio-demographic changes in Ukraine: factors and prospects.
Language: Ukrainian
Abstract: Estimates of the future level of fertility were based on national surveys of reproductive aspiration of the population. Total fertility rate was calculated by iterations between age-specific fertility rates of synthetic and real cohorts. Herewith projected age-specific fertility profile takes into account a common European trend to growing in the average age of the mother at birth.
The general optimistic vision of the future dynamics of life expectancy in Ukraine is based on the fact that almost all countries, even those that have achieved higher life expectancy, continue its growth. Standards of quality of life spread from developed countries to less developed countries, which lead to an increase in life expectancy in the world at large. It is possible that in Ukraine in recent years there has been a turning point, like in Poland in the early 1990s, and the Baltic countries later, so that the dynamics of the average life expectancy can get the common European trajectory. At the present level of mortality in Ukraine the largest reserves of increasing life expectancy are concentrated in the age 40–54 and 50–59 years for males and females respectively. Although these age groups have accumulated the greatest growth potential, mortality reduction in them will be slow and will last the entire forecast period. But mortality reduction may be faster in the age range 30–44 years. It is in employable young and middle age groups where a greater effect in reducing mortality in the near term can be achieved.
Forecasting of migration trends is based on estimating the future registered migration. Prediction of migrations includes three stages: estimating future values of arrival and departure by enlarged geographical areas; estimating prospective distribution of migrants by sex and age; estimating the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. According to the forecast, net migration in Ukraine in the late 2050s will be about 50 thousand people per year with Medium variant, 130–135 thousands – High, and close to zero –Low variant.
The population size of Ukraine in the next half-century will most likely decline. A slight increase of the population in Ukraine will be possible only under the most favorable coincidence of scenarios for all major components of population movement. Calculations show that the further decline of the population in Ukraine is most likely – to 37.1 million at the beginning of 2060. The upper limit for this date is 46.7 million people, and the lower boundary is seen at 28.3 million people.
We can only definitely say that the process of population aging will continue. Growing numbers of elderly people increases the requirements for healthcare reform. Shifting the retirement age for women will reduce the support ratio and, for the period of transition, slow down its inevitable growth. However, even under this condition, the increased burden on the working age population will only postponed. The growth of support ratio to 600–633 people older working age per thousand people of working age at the beginning of 2060 is most likely, although fluctuations may be within a wider range – from 446 to 855. Proportion of population of working age will be about 47.7–55.3%, while the proportion of persons of retirement age may reach from 24.7 to 40.8%.
Key words: population forecast, fertility, mortality, life expectancy, population migration, support ratio.
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