Demography and social economy

FOUNDATIONS OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Olena Pryiatelchuk — 2025-10-17

At the end of 2024, the English publishing house "Cambridge Scholars Publishing" published a fundamental monograph by Ukrainian authors "Transformation and Post-War Economic Recovery of Ukraine", edited by Leonid Kistersky and Anatoly Zadoia. The scientific editors, who are themselves the authors of the chapters, managed to attract leading specialists from the most reputable universities and research institutions of the National Academy of Scien ces of Ukraine. Structurally, the monograph has 22 chapters, which are combined into 5 sections, which are dedicated to the leading sectors and problems of the Ukrainian economy that require recovery. The purpose of this monograph is to study the post-war revival of the main sectors of the Ukrainian economy based on positive world experience and advanced technologies. So far, neither in Ukraine nor in other countries has there been a comprehensive study of a similar problem, which would analyse possibilities of recovery and competitive development of the main sectors of the economy. To solve the problems caused by the RF’s war against Ukraine, not only new economic mechanisms are needed, but also new approaches to the selection of personnel that will consider high spiritual, moral and other human values on Ukraine's path to high-tech development. The problems that Ukraine will have to
solve are unique. But this does not exclude possibilities of using positive experience of other countries. For Ukraine, the most interesting and useful may be the experience of Poland in joining the EU and NATO. The final section of the monograph, written by the outstanding Polish scientist and politician (twice a senator of the Polish Sejm) and organizer of education, Professor Krzysztof Pawlowski, who is the founder and president of the Higher School of Business-National Louis University in Nowy Sącz, is devoted to the generalization of this experience.

According to the authors of the monograph, to overcome the current systemic crisis in Ukraine, it is necessary to use tactical and strategic reform measures in a consolidated manner. Immediate tactical measures include reforming the governance system and combating corruption, and strategic ones include restoring the rule of law and moral and ethical norms in the economy, i.e. Christian values.

Of course, the focus of the monograph is the study of the problems of transformation and post-war recovery of the Ukrainian economy, and the English language monograph is primarily intended for potential practical participants in these processes. However, it will be interesting and useful to all researchers who analyse the transformations of complex economic systems.

CIVIC ENGAGEMENT AS A TOOL FOR THE (RE)INTEGRATION OF FORCED MIGRANTS FROM UKRAINE

Iryna Maidanik — 2025-10-17

The article explores the civic engagement of forced migrants from Ukraine as an important factor in their integration into host societies and after potential return to their homeland. The relevance of the study is driven by the scale of current forced migration from Ukraine caused by the full-scale invasion, which has introduced new challenges for migrants, governmental bodies, and civil society. The purpose of the article is to investigate the involvement of Ukrainian forced migrants in civic activities abroad, to identify their sociodemographic characteristics and return intentions, and to outline the prospects for civil society organizations in the reintegration of returnees. The study is based on the analysis of empirical data collected through a sample survey of Ukrainian forced migrants. The survey was conducted online and covered 429 respondents residing in 31 countries. Methods of grouping, comparison, and statistical analysis were used to structure the data. The research findings show that over 60 % of respondents are engaged in some form of civic activity abroad, confirming the significant role of civic initiatives in the adaptation of displaced persons. It was found that factors such as age, presence of children, financial well-being, language proficiency in the host country, and likelihood of return to Ukraine do not significantly influence the level of civic engagement, indicating a high degree of internal motivation among participants. At the same time, differences in levels of civic engagement between Germany and Poland were observed, which may be attributed to the historical presence of the Ukrainian diaspora and local integration conditions. The article examines the role of civil society organizations in the reintegration of return migrants to Ukraine. In particular, it is shown that the experience of civic engagement abroad can serve as an important resource for the post-war recovery of the country. Civil society organizations have the potential to become key support institutions and mediators between migrants, governmental bodies, and society in both host countries and Ukraine. Future research may focus on developing strategies for the effective use of civic experience acquired abroad in the processes of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.

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[П’ятковська, О. (2022). Функціональні пріоритети українських мігрантських організацій у Польщі після початку повномасштабної агресії Росії. У: Т. АстрамовичЛейк, Я. Турчин, О. Горбач (ред.). Багатовимірність українсько-польської співпраці: генезис, особливості та перспективи. Рига: Baltija Publishing].

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[CEDOS (2017). Українці за кордоном та українська влада: як разом працювати для України?].

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[Ключковська, І., П’ятковська, О., Долінська, О., Гнатюк, В. (2024). Найкращі практики співпраці громадських організацій з місцевою владою для адвокації питань українських воєнних мігрантів: Аналіт. звіт. Львів].

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15. Purohit, P. (2024, December 4). How digital presence is bridging the gap between urban and rural NGOs. NGOFeed. https://ngofeed.com/blog/how-digital-presence-is-bridgingthe-gap-between-urban-and-rural-ngos/

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HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES IN UKRAINE: TYPOLOGY AND STRUCTURAL DIFFERENCES

Svitlana Polіakova — 2025-10-17

The aim of the study is to examine structural differences in household expenditures, to classify households by income level and socio-demographic characteristics in order to identify disparities in their consumption capabilities, to highlight those most vulnerable to crises and shocks, and to develop recommendations for state social policy. The survey on the socioeconomic situation of households, in which the authors were directly involved, made it possible to fill the informational gap caused by the discontinuation of the Household Living Conditions Survey, which had been conducted by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine since 1999. A database was created, and indicators were calculated to characterize various aspects of household living conditions. Poverty levels were calculated for various household types using two criteria: the absolute criterion (based on the actual subsistence minimum) and the relative criterion (75% of the median level of total equivalent expenditures). The results of the study reveal significant structural differences in consumption expenditures between poor and non-poor households, as well as between households with children and those without. Among families with children, large families are in the most disadvantaged position. The study found that, under wartime conditions, households are forced to reduce their consumption of certain goods and services, leading to a decline in living standards — especially for the most vulnerable segments of the population. At the same time, the research shows that households with higher income levels have greater flexibility in their spending, allowing them to better adapt to crisis conditions. The structure of total expenditures was analyzed for families with different compositions in the pre-war year of 2021 and during the second year of the war. It was found that compared to 2021, spending on food, healthcare, and household goods has increased significantly, while spending on clothing and footwear has increased to a lesser extent. Conversely, there has been a sharp decline in the share of expenditures on personal subsidiary farming, financial assistance to relatives, real estate purchases, major home repairs, housing construction, the purchase of stocks and foreign currency, and bank deposits. Per capita food consumption indicators were calculated for families with and without children, including families with one child, two children, and three or more children. The expenditure structure of families at higher risk of poverty and vulnerability was also analyzed, including families with children and persons with disabilities, families with children and elderly or disabled members, families with children where all adults are incapable of working, and internally displaced persons families. The research methodology includes the use of statistical methods to analyze data obtained from the Household Living Conditions Survey, which is representative of the entire population of Ukrainian households. Methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison, systems approach, classification, structural analysis, and the index method were also employed.

The findings of this study can be useful for developing recommendations on social policy and support measures for the most vulnerable population groups, as well as for designing effective crisis response strategies. The study also provides new approaches to understanding the socio-economic consequences of war for the consumption capacity of different types of families in Ukraine.

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5. Nowak, J., & Kochkova, O. (2011). Income, culture, and household consumption expenditure patterns in the European Union: Convergence or divergence? Journal of International Consumer Marketing, 23 (3—4), 260—275. https://doi.org/10.1080/08961530. 2011.578062

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[Черенько, Л. М. та ін. (2021). Соціальне відторгнення, нерівність та бідність дітей. Київ: Ін-т демографії та соц. дослідж. ім. М. В. Птухи НАН України].

9. Libanova, E., et al. (2024). Poverty and inequality in Ukraine under the influence of COVID-19: Assessment approaches (2nd ed.). Institute for Demography and Life Quality Problems of the NAS of Ukraine. https://www.idss.org.ua/arhiv/New_БІДНІСТЬ%20 ТА%20НЕРІВНІСТЬ%20В%20УКРАЇНІ%20ПІД%20ВПЛИВОМ%20COVID-19%20 ПІДХОДИ%20ДО%20ОЦІНЮВАННЯ-1.pdf

[Лібанова, Е. та ін. (2024). Бідність та нерівність в Україні під впливом COVID-19: підходи до оцінювання (2-е вид.). Київ: Ін-т демографії та проблем якості життя НАН України].

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RIGHT TO HOUSING FOR INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS

Valerii Novikov — 2025-10-17

The provision of the population with comfortable housing is one of the most important indicators of the quality of life of the population. Adequate housing has always remained a priority problem for the population of Ukraine. At the international level, the right to adequate housing is interpreted in an expanded context. Its criteria are the following: guaranteed housing, availability of services, materials, amenities and infrastructure, suitability of housing for living, physical accessibility, location, cultural adequacy, affordability. The latter criterion is interpreted as the cost of housing, which should not call into question the possibility of its residents exercising other human rights or undermine this possibility. It is from these positions that the right to housing for internally displaced persons (IDPs) is mainly interpreted. Currently, 2.5 million IDPs need to restore their rights to destroyed and damaged housing. A significant role in its implementation belongs to scientific research. Today, there are a number of key issues regarding the implementation of medium-term solutions to provide IDPs with housing, in particular in the absence of a unified system for assessing the level of their integration, which require a comprehensive systemic approach to the implementation of state policy in the housing sector. This will allow Ukraine to reform housing policy, harmonize the country’s legislation with modern world norms and standards. The task of the article is to formulate recommendations for improving housing policy for ID Ps based on the analysis of published scientific sources, statistical data and legislative acts. The scientific novelty is the author’s definition of internally displaced persons as a special layer of society, whose vital activity requires separate legislative regulation. The concept of legal relations in the housing sector is introduced. A number of mechanisms (financial and credit, organizational, programmatic) are proposed that will provide housing for internally displaced persons more accessible. Research methods: an empirical-theoretical (complex) method was used, which ensured the objectivity and reliability of the results obtained, to study in more depth various aspects of the chosen topic.

REFERENCES / ЛІТЕРАТУРА

1. Kravchenko, V. I., & Palyvoda, K. V. (2006). Financing of housing construction: new trends. Kyiv: Publishing house «Kyiv-Mohyla Academy», ch. 1

[Кравченко, В. І., & Паливода, К. В. (2006). Фінансування будівництва житла: новітні тенденції. Київ: Видавничий дім «Києво-Могилянська академія». Ч. 1].

2. Cherenko, L. M. et al. (2020). Housing conditions of the population: factors, current state and regulatory policy. Kyiv: NAS of Ukraine, Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine. https://idss.org.ua/arhiv/living_conditions.pdf

[Черенько, Л. М. та ін. (2020). Житлові умови населення: чинники, сучасний стан і політика регулювання Київ: НАН України, Інститут демографії та соціальних досліджень імені М. В. Птухи НАН України].

3. Novikova, O. F., Amosha, O. I., & Antonyuk, V. P., et al. (2016). Internally Displaced Persons: From Overcoming Obstacles to Strategies for Success. Кyiv: Institute of Industrial Economics of the NAS of Ukraine. https://iie.org.ua/wp-content/uploads/monografiyi/ 2016/2016_mono_Novikova_Amosha_Antonyuk_2016.pdf

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4. Tokar-Ostapenko, O. (2022). Internally displaced persons: where to look for help during war? National Institute for Strategic Studies. https://niss.gov.ua/news/komentariekspertiv/vnutrishno-peremishcheni-osoby-de-shukaty-dopomohu-pid-chas-viyny

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[Огляд житлової ситуації в Україні: умови проживання, вартість оренди та фактори мобільності (липень 2024). Представництво МОМ в Україні].

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MICROSIMULATION THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND WAR ON POVERTY IN UKRAINE

Vladyslav Shyshkin — 2025-10-17

The article presents the results of a scientific study and the development of the project “Rising Inequality and Poverty in Ukraine Due to the Covid-19 Pandemic” (registration number №2021.01/0295), carried out by the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine under Agreement №33/0295 dated March 1, 2024, with grant support from the National Research Foundation of Ukraine. The paper explores the socio-economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for poverty rate in Ukraine. Analyzing poverty in Ukraine in the post- Covid-19 period is crucial given the deep s o cio-economic transformations caused by the pandemic. Until 2020, Ukraine demonstrated moderately positive trend of poverty reduction. However, the pandemic disrupted the trend of gradual poverty rate decline. The consequences of the Covid-19 crisis led to a significant increase in poverty, and in the absence of the pandemic, the gradual decline in poverty levels would likely have continued. The existing social protection system proved insufficiently effective in mitigating the effects of such a large-scale shock. As a result, the social profile of vulnerable groups changed, with even population segments previously not considered vulnerable falling below the poverty threshold. The aim of this article is to develop an alternative scenario of Ukraine’s socio-economic development in the absence of the Covid-19 pandemic and the war, and to assess losses through the simulation of basic poverty indicators. The primary method used in this study is microsimulation modeling, with all macroeconomic assumptions based on pre-pandemic official forecasts and statistical data. The counterfactual poverty forecast provides a basis for evaluating the actual impact of Covid-19 on poverty and illustrates the extent to which poverty rates in Ukraine could have decreased under a nopandemic scenario.

In 2020, the coronavirus crisis led to a sharp increase in absolute poverty in Ukraine — the first such rise since 2016. In the absence of the pandemic shock, poverty rate would have continued to decline — in particular, poverty based on expenditures below the actual subsistence minimum would have decreased by 6.8 percentage points. Counterfactual modeling of a no-pandemic scenario revealed that the Covid-19 pandemic caused an additional 1.8 million people to fall into poverty in 2020. In 2021, there was a notable improvement compared to 2020, with a significant reduction in absolute poverty. However, the overall poverty losses remained considerable, with approximately 1.4 million new poor individuals still recorded. The losses associated with the war were even more substantial: the russian war resulted in an additional 6.1 million people falling below the poverty threshold. The impact of the war on poverty rates after 2022 has been significantly more severe than the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. The cumulative negative impact of both the pandemic and the war has made a return to pre- Covid poverty reduction trends considerably more difficult.

REFERENCES / ЛІТЕРАТУРА

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POPULATION REPRODUCTION AFTER INTENSE MILITARY CONFLICTS

Oleksandr Gladun — 2025-10-17

Wars are an integral part of human history. The uniqueness of the situation in Ukraine lies in the fact that a large-scale, prolonged, high-intensity war is taking place in a country whose demographic situation corresponds to the Second Demographic Transition, whereas until now, large-scale military conflicts have occurred in countries with an incomplete First Demographic Transition. This fact complicates drawing historical analogies to determine the prospects for post-war demographic recovery in Ukraine. The study aims to identify the characteristics of population reproduction in post-war countries at different stages of the First Demographic Transition. The novelty of the work lies in the fact that, for the first time, the concept of the demographic transition is used to analyze the prospects for demographic recovery in the post-war period. The main methods used were systematization, generalization, structural-logical analysis, comparative analysis, and graphical analysis. The study analyzed the main characteristics of demographic development before the outbreak of armed conflict and after its end in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Vietnam, and Rwanda. It is evident that a high fertility level and a young age structure of the population on the eve of war contributed to population growth in Iraq, Iran, Vietnam, and Rwanda, despite war losses, or to its rapid recovery despite large-scale emigration, as was the case in Syria. Bosnia and Herzegovina, although it did not restore its population size, experienced mitigated consequences of the war due to a certain excess of births over deaths in the post-war period. At the same time, certain limitations in making comparisons are related to the insufficiency of the necessary data. Full demographic recovery after a shock such as war appears unlikely for a country that has completed the First Demographic Transition, has an ultra-low birth rate, and is experiencing accelerated population aging.

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50. UNHCR (1999). The humanitarian operation in Bosnia, 1992—1995: Dilemmas of nego tiating humanitarian access. https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/3ae6a0c58.pdf

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54. Pasalic, S., & Pasalic, D. (2016). Migration losses of Bosnia and Herzegovina and demographic aging. IJASOS: International E-Journal of Advances in Social Sciences, 2 (6), 650—658. http://ijasos.ocerintjournals.org/en/download/article-file/261786

HYBRID MODEL OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC REHABILITATION OF MONOFUNCTIONAL CITIES

Victoriіa Mykytenko — 2025-10-17

The purpose of this study is to develop a hybrid model for the socio-economic rehabilitation of monofunctional cities as a spatially adaptive tool for Ukraine’s post-war recovery. The model integrates mechanisms of cognitive resocialization, social decompression, medical genetic monitoring, mobile employment economy, and smart regeneration to address the syndrome of learned helplessness, reduce infrastructural pressure, and enhance the role of resource-based communities in shaping quality of life. The methodological framework combines systemic, scenario-based, cognitive-behavioral, and institutional approaches with the principles of regional decompression and reconstructive development. The study employs an interdisciplinary toolkit, including scenario modeling, cluster and spatial-geographic analysis, psychometric assessment of learned helplessness, logic-project modeling, equilibrium and financial-economic evaluations, as well as the estimation of infrastructure costs and natural resource adaptation. The empirical base consists of official socio-economic indicators, legislative documents, and case studies of post-industrial city transformations in countries that have experienced prolonged crises.

The scientific novelty lies in the construction of a hybrid model of spatial rehabilitation that combines scenario-based mechanisms of social decompression, rotational labor mobility, cognitive resocialization, and financial planning tailored to the specificities of seven typologized post-war macro-regional zones in Ukraine. The study proposes a scenario programmatic approach to financing rehabilitation processes, incorporating differentiated indicators of the socio-ecological-economic conditions of territories, the extent of war-related destruction, and their recovery potential. The findings provide a methodological foundation for designing spatial rehabilitation strategies grounded in the principles of spatial development, reconstructive justice, fiscal efficiency, multilevel coordination, and cognitive empowerment in the context of post-crisis recovery.

REFERENCES / ЛІТЕРАТУРА

1. Mykytenko, V., Mykytenko, D., & Chuprina, M. (2025). Scenario modeling of spatial regeneration of macroregional zones of Ukraine: socio-ecological-economic priorities of reconstruction. Demography and Social Economy, 1 (59), 109—132. https://doi.org/ 10.15407/dse2025.01.109

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FORMATION OF A PUBLIC-PRIVATE POLYENTITY FOR SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT

Dmytro Klinovy — 2025-10-17

The article is devoted to the problems of organizing multi-subject management of spatial development in accordance with the requirements of modern governance practice. The relevance of the article is determined by the need to specify the organizational aspects of the institutionalization of multi-subject management in Ukraine and to form an algorithm for its practical application in the spatial development management system. The purpose of the publication is the theoretical and methodological justification of the implementation of the multi-subject approach to spatial development management based on public-private partnership mechanisms and the development of a practical algorithm for stakeholder interaction in semi-subject management of territorial entities using an eco-facilitative approach. The novelty of the publication lies in defining the roles of stakeholders, identifying formats and tools for interaction between stakeholders of the multi-subject management process and developing an algorithm for the formation and functioning of a management semi-subject. The research methodology is based on the use of multi-subject and eco-facilitative management approaches.

The polysubject of territorial development management is identified as a set of stakeholders who are in subject-subject relations, united by common interests and goals of the development of the territory’s economy and act as a collective personality-manager who develops, adopts and implements management decisions. A polysubject management model is proposed that will function on the principles of public-private partnership, platform economy, foresight design and master planning mechanisms. Forms and tools for organizing public-private relations are identified in terms of formats of contractual cooperation and joint economic activity. A phased algorithm for the formation and functioning of a managerial polysubject is developed based on an eco-facilitative approach that organizes and harmonizes the interaction of stakeholders in spatial development management. The article uses general scientific research methods: abstract-logical and analysis and synthesis in identifying the roles of stakeholders, the classification method in considering formats, forms, mechanisms and tools for organizing public-private relations, monographic, synthesis and construction — in developing an algorithm for the formation and functioning of a managerial multi-subject.

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