Demography and social economy

DEMOGRAPHIC LOSSES OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES RESULTING FROM THE WARS

Oleksandr Gladun — 2024-10-19

Looking at the current state in which Ukraine found itself due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, many questions arise regarding the possibility of estimating demographic losses resulting from this war. A study of the demographic losses of the Western Balkan countries during the most recent wars in this region is a useful preparation for approbation of a methodological basis for future calculations. Therefore, it is currently relevant to study the specifics of the use of general methodological approaches for determining losses under the conditions of a specific social disaster; to assess the demographic losses of the republics of the former Yugoslavia resulting from the Balkan wars, taking into account the specifics of the course of the crisis and the available information base; to determine the possibility of applying the used approaches to the assessment of demographic losses resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war.

The purpose of the article is an attempt to estimate the demographic losses of the republics of the former Yugoslavia resulting from the Balkan wars. The tasks are the analysis of available data and research on demographic losses and obtaining authors’ own assessment of them. The scientific novelty is the generalized information from various sources and the study of the specifics of its formation, the authors’ assessment of the excess mortality and the birth deficit in some republics of the former Yugoslavia. For the purposes of the analysis, the authors provided a chronology of events in the Western Balkans of the late 20th and early 21st centuries and identified sources of information on losses for each former Yugoslav republic. However, despite the fact that many sources can be found in open access, they differ in the diversity of data, calculation methodology, and completeness of presentation. The article presents generalized information on the number of dead as a result of military conflicts based on several analytical sites. The authors defined two approaches, according to which demographic losses can be calculated: the first is the assessment of direct and indirect losses; the second is the use of the demographic balance equation, when excess mortality and birth deficit are estimated. In all the resources cited in the article, the determination of losses is carried out according to the first approach, the authors of the article made an attempt to estimate demographic losses according to the second approach. Using this approach, based on Eurostat data, it was possible to determine losses for only three countries: Serbia, Slovenia, and Croatia. For two regions, Eurostat does not provide demographic data for the years of active military operations: for Bosnia and Herzegovina for 1992—1995, for Kosovo for 1998—2001. In Macedonia, the number of casualties was small, which makes it impractical to build a hypothetical model, while Montenegro managed to avoid war altogether. So, both approaches have one common problem — the lack of a reliable information base. However, differences in loss estimates between the two approaches are natural due to the use of different methodological tools. Nevertheless, the magnitude and causes of large differences require additional research. It should be noted that there are quite a lot of estimates of direct losses, but at the time of the study, the authors were not aware of attempts to estimate excess mortality in individual republics of the former Yugoslavia. The obtained estimates require critical analysis and, if necessary, adjustments. The direction is the reconstruction (or clarification) of demographic dynamics (especially for Bosnia and Herzegovina) taking into account long-term demographic trends.

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DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF UKRAINIAN FORCED MIGRATION TO THE CZECH REPUBLIC FOLLOWING THE RUSSIAN FULL-SCALE INVASION

Iryna Kurylo — 2024-10-19

The paper examines the scale and dynamics of Ukrainian forced migration to the Czech Republic following the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the demographic characteristics of Ukrainian war migrants, and the impact of this migration wave on the demographic situation in the Czech Republic. The study aimed to analyze the specific features of migration caused by the full-scale war, its reflection in demographic statistics, and to define the demographic profile of Ukrainian war migration to the Czech Republic. The research utilized statistical data provided by the Czech Statistical Office (Český statistický úřad) and applied methods of systematization and generalization, structural-logical and comparative analysis, statistical methods of structure and dynamics analysis, graphical data representation, and others. This type of study regarding Ukrainian war migrants to the Czech Republic has been conducted for the first time. Among European countries, the Czech Republic ranks third in the number of forced migrants from Ukraine, accumulating 8.4 % of the total number of Ukrainian war migrants in the European Union. It was found that the reflection of this migration wave in demographic statistics is influenced by organizational and accounting circumstances, such as the terms and procedures for extending temporary protection for war migrants, and the lack of specific “markers” in the statistics of demographic events for persons under temporary protection. Ukrainian war migration in the year of the Russian full-scale invasion led to a record increase in positive migration balance in the Czech Republic and increase in the share of individuals with Ukrainian citizenship in this country. The forced war migration wave in 2022 affected the demographic composition of both individuals with Ukrainian citizenship and the entire population of the Czech Republic through an increased share of women, who predominate among war migrants, and a slight slowdown in ageing and an increase in the share of the working-age population for two consecutive years. Among Ukrainians under temporary protection in the Czech Republic, there is a particularly high share of women aged 35 to 45 and boys aged 17—18, and also high proportion of children aged 10 to 14. During the years of the full-scale war, the number of marriages registered between Ukrainians in the Czech Republic has increased. In 2022—2023, due to the wave of war migration, the number of newborns with Ukrainian citizenship in the Czech Republic significantly increased, and their share in the total number of births among foreigners rose (by almost 30 percentage points in two years), although the total fertility rate of Ukrainian women was noticeably lower than the national average. The number of deaths among individuals with Ukrainian citizenship also increased due to the influx of war migrants, but this had a negligible impact on the level of mortality.

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FERTILITY AND FAMILY POLICY IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Svitlana Aksyonova — 2024-10-19

The study of shifts in the fertility dynamics during crisis periods along with changes in the system of family policy in European countries is a relevant direction of research for the further development of Ukraine’s demographic policy, increasing its effectiveness, especially in the period of post-war reconstruction. In this regard, the purpose of our paper is to find out the changes in trends and structural characteristics of fertility in the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic in European countries in combination with the analysis of change in family policy, effectiveness of current and implemented during this period policy measures. The main methods used in the paper were systematization and generalization of statistical information from various sources, structural-logical and comparative analysis and critical assessment of measures implemented to counter crisis situations in developed European countries. The scientific novelty consists in generalizing fertility characteristics and family policy measures to counteract the negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic on family wellbeing in European countries. The grouping of European countries was based on the changes that occurred in the fertility dynamics on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic and in 2020—2021. In most countries, there was a decrease in the total fertility rate in 2020 followed by a rather sharp rise in 2021. This became possible due to the increase in childbirth among women of middle and older reproductive age. The countries in which there was a long period of decline in the total fertility rate before the epidemic but in 2021 fertility increased despite the complexity of the epidemiological situation (Ireland, the Netherlands, Iceland, Norway) have drawn the most attention. Consistency, comprehensiveness, adherence to principles, variety are key characteristics of family policy that strengthen reproductive resilience. Along with providing financial assistance to families with children, in many countries, parents were given additional paid leave, measures were introduced to counter the dismissal of employees who have children, support was provided to institutions that continued to provide childcare services, and remote employment opportunities were expanded. The issues of the influence of population’s trust in the government (especially in periods of crisis) on formation of reproductive intentions and their realization need further study.

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Sobotka, T., Jasilioniene, A., Galarza, A. A., Zeman, K., Nemeth, L., & Jdanov, D. (2021, March 24). Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/mvy62
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INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESILIENCE

Mykhailo Khvesyk — 2024-10-19

Current issues of the formation of a modern system of institutional support of resilience based on the ecological component in Ukraine are considered. Attention is focused on the development of conceptual methodological postulates aimed at creating an effective institutional environment for sustainable and resilient nature management. The purpose of the article is the formation of a modern institutional environment for nature management, which will be based on an effective combination of formal and informal institutions, which will directly or indirectly, with the help of appropriate tools, ensure the involvement of natural resources in economic circulation. The research was conducted using a complex of general scientific and special methods, which made it possible to ensure the conceptual integrity and reliability of the obtained results. With the help of abstract logical analysis method, conceptual methodological postulates on institutional support for the sustainability of resilient nature management were formed. Structural and functional analysis is used to study the functional features of institutions within the framework of resilient spatial development. Based on the modeling method, a scheme for the distribution of institutional tools by components of ensuring resilience in the natural resource sphere was developed, and the relationships between these tools were identified and visualized. The novelty of the work consists in the development of an algorithm for the implementation of institutional transformations regarding the management of territorial entities’ resilience (in terms of natural-resource / ecological component) taking into account the European experience of municipal management of spatial development. The principles of institutional transformations in resilience management, which are of a universal nature, have been improved with an interpretation in the field of natural-resource (ecological) relations. Attention is focused on the importance of forming multi-subject corporate structures of territorial development management using modern platform mechanisms. This approach makes it possible to balance the interests of various stakeholders — the state, local self-government bodies, businesses and the population, and, accordingly, to ensure a consensus regarding the directions of resilient development of territorial entities. The article also examines the issue of consolidation of financial resources in the natural and economic sphere and the mechanisms of their effective use to achieve the goals of resilient development. Innovative approaches to the management of natural resources are proposed, including their capitalization and involvement in economic circulation, taking into account environmental limitations. Conclusions have been made regarding promising directions for further research in this field, including the development of specific mechanisms for implementing relevant institutional transformations, evaluating their effectiveness in various regions of Ukraine, as well as studying the possibilities of adapting international resilience management experience to Ukrainian realities.

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Cherevatskyi, D. Yu. (2023). Resilience of the economy and the economy of resilience. Economy of Industry, 1, 31—39. https://doi.org/10.15407/econindustry2023.01.031 [in Ukrainian].
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SOCIAL POLICY AS A FACTOR ENSURING STATE SUSTAINABILITY

Tetiana Kalashnykova — 2024-10-19

In the conditions when Ukrainian statehood is facing the most serious challenge in its recent history, issues regarding state policy priorities in the social and economic sphere are becoming relevant. The goal of the article is to study the place and role of social policy in the process of ensuring the sustainability of the state. General scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, generalization, classification, system analysis, as well as a graphic method for visualization of the obtained results were used to form the main theses of the study. The work analyzes the modern scientific and theoretical platform and basic definitions of the concept of «sustainability», investigates the specifics and permanent context of the use of terms related to it — viability, stability and resilience, offers a systemic view of the state’s viability and identifies its components. Social policy is considered as an element of the management system of social processes, which directly affects the sustainability of Ukrainian society. At the current stage of development of the global economy, human is the main source of economic growth, and the quality of human potential is the key to the state’s competitiveness. Taking this into account, the importance of social and humanitarian policy is growing many times over. In economic policy, making a profit does not become a self-sufficient activity, instead the policy should be aimed at the person, unlocking the potential of the individual and forming the quality human potential of the state. Therefore, when assessing social policy, one should remember the value of a person, in particular the economic one, and the need for appropriate investments — in safety, health care system, and improving working conditions for the development of this resource. The work highlights the main elements of the state’s sustainability, shows the connection between its higher-level elements, such as the sustainability of the economy and the sustainability of society. It is in society — in the family, community, at the place of study — that the personality is formed and acquires a certain physical condition, education, professional skills and qualifications, and social connections. In this way, human and social capital is formed as a resource for the development of the economy and, accordingly, its stability and sustainability. At the same time, the economy generates material and financial resources that are necessary for both physical existence and development of an individual, as well as for the existence of society as a whole, in particular, social and engineering infrastructure facilities. The conducted analysis clearly demonstrates the importance of social policy as a social institution of sustainability in the state.

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SOCIAL PROTECTION: TERMINOLOGICAL DEFINITION, FUNDAMENTALS AND MANAGEMENT TOOLS

Valerii Novikov — 2024-10-19

Changes in social and economic relations that are rapidly occurring under the influence of various types of risks are causing the emergence of new challenges in the relations of the population with state and public entities. The importance of social institutions that are designed to provide material and psychological assistance to segments of the population different in age, gender and professional level is increasing. In the conditions of partial or sometimes complete loss of income by the citizens of the country, narrowing of the sphere of employment and consumption of socially important services, considerable attention is paid to the social protection of the population. The main purpose of this institution is to promote the maximum possible support of the quality of life, especially for the least protected sections of the population. At the same time, from an economic point of view, the importance of social protection is inseparable from its role in achieving an effective balance between the social and economic components of society, which imposes a certain responsibility on its social obligations and, therefore, an adequate understanding of functional boundaries. However, in the economic literature and in practice, social protection appears to be very simplified and, as a rule, is characterized by parametric indicators of assistance to the population. At the same time, the functional content of social protection as a systemic category, its connection with other social categories, in particular with social security, as well as with the budgetary, financial and economic instruments of society, escape the attention of researchers. In this regard, it should be considered relevant to specify the system of functions of the modern multi-subject management model and its inherent implementation mechanisms. The purpose of the paper is to determine the categorical essence of social protection of the population, its functional features among other segments of state social policy; substantiating the feasibility of using a multi-subject form of managing social processes that are important for the life of citizens. Novelty of the article lies in the classical understanding of the concept of social protection of the population. Its connection with the category of social security and the general process of social development of the population is revealed. The concept of multisubject management is structured as a system of interrelated measures to determine “centers of influence” on priorities, goals and fulfillment of tasks of social development of the population in the face of the onset of corresponding risks.

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GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOR SOCIAL SUPPORT SYSTEMS: ESSENCE, COMPONENT FEATURES AND CHARACTERISTICS

Yuliia Horemykina — 2024-10-19

The article is devoted to issues of global challenges for social support systems. The relevance of the study is determined by the growing role of global challenges in the socio-economic life of states. The purpose of the article is to analyze the specifics of global challenges characterizing modern social support systems, including the social support system of Ukraine. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the identification of global challenges for social support systems. The basic methods of scientific research used in the article are analysis and synthesis (to identify the specifics of global challenges for social support systems), graphic method (to demonstrate the connection between the global basis of the emergence of global challenges and challenges for the social support system). It has been established that the main global challenges for social support systems are the following: the functional failure of the social support system; growing needs of recipients of social services, benefits, and payments; the transformation of a socially oriented state; the reduction in abilities of states to maintain social support systems. The functional failure of the social support system means its state in which the formal presence of agencies and institutions designed to guarantee the provision of social services, benefits and payments to the population is not accompanied by their effective work, that is, the system of social support does not solve the current social problems of society and becomes a burden for state budget. The most acute challenge for the social support system for Ukraine under war conditions is the growth in the needs of recipients of social services, benefits, and payments, which can occur in two ways: 1) an increase in the needs of existing recipients of social benefits, services, and payments on account of changes in the socio-economic, political, ecological, security situation in the region or objective physiological changes in certain groups of recipients (aging, deterioration of well-being); 2) an increase in the number (or share) of people applying for social support due to changes in the socio-economic, political, environmental, security situation in the region or subjective life circumstances. Closely related to this challenge is another challenge, namely the reduction in states’ ability to maintain social support systems. Particular attention is paid to the causes and potential consequences of the transformation of the concept of a socially oriented state. In addition, the author researched the global basis of challenges for social support systems, which combines the key factors of their occurrence.

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THE ROLE OF THE RESILIENT POTENTIAL OF PUBLIC ORGANIZATIONS IN RECONSTRUCTION OF TERRITORIAL COMMUNITIES OF UKRAINE

Oksana Dyakonenko — 2024-10-19

The relevance of the research on the resilient potential of public organizations in Ukraine is determined by the need to increase the regenerative capabilities of territorial communities within a limited time frame and with restricted resource suport. The purpose of the article is substantiating the resilient potential of public organizations as an effective tool for increasing the adaptive capacity and self-organization of public community, mitigating the destructive consequences and accelerating recovery of territorial communities during the Russo-Ukrainian war and in post-war period. The novelty of the article consists in identifying the impact of public organizations on the resilient recovery of territorial communities in the conditions of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The research was carried out using the systems approach method, techniques of abstraction and generalization, functional and comparative analysis, statistical methods and data analysis, graphic method. The influence of public organizations on the resilience of territorial communities was analyzed by means of correlation-regression analysis. Three indicators of the resilient potential of territorial communities of the country were selected according to the criterion of significance and the existence of a cause-and-effect relationship. Namely: profitability of local budgets per person, cash income of households, the size of informally employed population as a sign of the shadow economy. The main functions of public organizations in ensuring the resilience of territorial communities have been disclosed. It is substantiated that the most effective tools for the influence of public organizations on ensuring the resilience of communities in the conditions of the war and post-war period are active means (promotion of citizens’ mobility, formation of public opinion, public control) and segmental tools (influence on certain population groups, infrastructure objects, territories etc.) with a fixed effect (legal assistance to internally displaced persons, reconstruction of the destroyed property and healthcare facilities, improvement of epidemic living conditions, ensuring the operation of a humanitarian center, collection of necessary information).

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